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Here are some comments from COT analysts together with a little education for those new to it: There are two main groups in this market: The former consistently fool the latter into guessing wrong at turning points.
That is, the speculators are usually way long at the top and very short at the bottom. So you can tell where prices are headed over next the six or so months by looking at what the speculators are betting on and assuming that if they're excited, they're wrong. This year they've gone record long, which explains the fast recovery in metals prices and mining stocks: The speculators were piling in.
This, of course, sets the stage for an eventual correction. So what happened last week was to be expected though it was several months overdue, illustrating the point that the COT report is great for direction but dangerously unreliable for timing.
So now that we know why the beat-down is happening, let's see what this indicator says about when in very general terms it might end. Note that the speculators are cutting their long positions while the commercials are scaling back their shorts. Not sure what that means.
So on Friday the 14th when Tuesday the 11th's results are reported we'll have a better sense of how close that bottom is. This might be the last chance to get in before the phase change. The net position is back at levels that we deem much healthier for a gold bull market. Gold should see additional physical demand as buying increases from China and India.
We believe gold investors should be taking this opportunity to buy back into gold. What is not is that metal will get very hard to get when it really takes off.
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